John Kavulich on the outcomes of G20 Leaders' Summit

The article is a transcript of an SABC broadcast from the G20 Leaders Summit hosted by South Africa in 2025 at the Nazareth Center, focusing on the final day and the early issuance of a consensus declaration. Interviewer discusses with John Kabalik, a senior research editor at Outcome Modeling Analysis, the utility of such declarations, which he deems short-lived (about 48 hours) due to their consensus-based weakness, emphasizing instead the summit's optics, visuals, and handling of surprises. Key context includes intense pre-summit speculation amid U.S. President Donald Trump's hostile rhetoric toward South Africa—falsely invoking 'white genocide' and offering refuge to white Afrikaners—leading to the unprecedented U.S. boycott: Trump initially declined, suggested Vice President Vance attend, then withdrew all participation. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is praised for statesmanlike handling of this 'bullying' from the 'world's largest bully,' maintaining protocol amid surprises. The summit sets a precedent by proceeding without one member, raising issues for the traditional handover ceremony to the next host (U.S.), with no G20 rules guiding such scenarios; Ramaphosa is advised to avoid forcing it, send diplomatic notes, and let time diffuse tensions, as Trump's attention shifts (e.g., to Russia-Ukraine peace talks). Behind-the-scenes value is highlighted: the physical gathering enabled an impromptu leaders' meeting on Trump's 28-point Russia-Ukraine peace proposal, with follow-up in Geneva, echoing unplanned diplomacy at past summits like Bali (post-missile incident) and India (African Union membership). Overall, the summit is deemed a success for Ramaphosa despite challenges, advancing South Africa's priorities while yielding consequential informal outcomes on global conflicts, though declarations' long-term impact remains limited.